Avengers: Endgame should be over the $2.7 billion mark by the end of today, if it isn't already. The film earned $1.29 million on Wednesday in North America to bring its domestic cume to $806.55 million in 35 days of domestic release. Presuming a continued 30/70 domestic/overseas split, it had earned around $2.697 billion as of yesterday. It should earn around $10 million this weekend for an $818 million domestic cume and (if it continues to lay 30/70) a $2.735 billion cume.
In the meantime, Aladdin earned another $7.46 million on Wednesday, dropping a big (but not disastrous) 38% from its record-setting $12 million Tuesday. The whole "movie tickets are cheap on Tuesday" thing may have inflated the Tuesday number a little, but I digress.
Guy Ritchie's $183 million-budgeted live-action musical romance has now earned $136.28 million in six days. And with a global cume over/under $290 million (depending on the overseas legs), it should pass $300 million sometime today.
That sets the film up for around $143 million in its first week of domestic play.
For reference, Solo: A Star Wars Story and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, X-Men: Apocalypse, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III all dropped around 65% in their second Fri-Sun frames.
Conversely, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Tomorrowland, Prince of Persia and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull dropped 55% in their respective second weekends.
Only Men in Black 3, also starring Will Smith by the way, held to a 48% drop despite Snow White and the Huntsman opening with $56 million in June of 2012. Unless it performs like MIB3 (which isn't outside the realm of possibility, as it's still unique unto itself in the marketplace), we're looking at a second weekend gross between $32 million and $41 million.
A hold worthy of the last big Will Smith Memorial Day weekend opener would give it a $47 million second weekend and an over/under $190 million ten-day cume. Still, a big drop would still give it a ten-day total between $174 million and $184 million. If, and this is a big "if," it continues to play 45/55 domestic/overseas, then the best case scenario gives it a $422 million global cume by Sunday. Even the grimmer scenario leaves it with around $375 million or $380 million by the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 3 earned around $2 million yesterday for a new $113 million 13-day domestic gross. That positions the $75 million Keanu Reeves sequel for a $115 million two-week domestic total, putting it ahead of all of Reeves' non-Matrix movies save for Speed ($121 million in 1994) and Something's Gotta Give ($124 million in 2003). A 50% drop would give it a $12.2 million weekend and a new $127 million ten-day cume.
That'll put it past The Devil's Advocate ($61 million in 1997/$119 million adjusted-for-inflation) among Reeves' inflation-adjusted grossers. It'll be behind only Bram Stoker's Dracula ($179 million adjusted), Something's Gotta Give ($183 million adjusted), The Matrix Revolutions ($208 million adjusted), Parenthood ($226 million adjusted), Speed ($261 million adjusted), The Matrix ($304 million adjusted) and The Matrix Reloaded ($420 million adjusted). So, barring a miracle, John Wick 3 will settle for eighth place among Reeves' "tickets-sold" hits.
The film had earned $175 million worldwide as of Sunday, with a 58/42 split. If that is continuing, then John Wick: Chapter 3 should be at around $200 million worldwide as of the end of the day. A continuing 58/42 domestic/overseas performance would give it a worldwide cume of $220 million by Sunday. If it makes it to $267 million by the end, it'll be behind only Reeves' Speed ($350 million in 1994) and the Matrix trilogy ($427 million in 2003, $463 million in 1999 and $742 million in 2003).
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